A Recent Survey from the Office of |National Statistics (ONS)
There has recently been a rash of news articles about health in later life – provoked by figures reported by the ONS. I am encouraged that such a subject, which will affect us all if we survive the exigencies of daily life in our younger years, is now receiving the recognition it needs.
In The Week, “Unhealthy old age” summarised the ONS report: “Children born in the UK today can expect to live until their late 80s – but their 25 to 30 years are unlikely to be spent in good health……boys born in 2022-2024 are expected to have only 60.7 years of good health – almost two years less than those borne in 2011-2013….Girls born in 2022-2024 are projected to have 60.9 healthy years, down by almost three years.There are clear regional differences…..”
Private Eye repeated these figures and noted that “this continued a trend of rising inequality since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.”
Medscape, a site which reports on recent medical news, noted that “..Overall life expectancy has increased in more than three-quarters of UK local areas since 2019-2021.” and “During 2020-2022, male life expectancy was 78.8 years, while average HLE was 62.4 years. That equates to 16.4 years, or 21% of life, spent in poor health. For females, life expectancy was 82.8 years, with 20.1 years, or 24%, spent in poor health.”
Why?
I asked AI why it thought this was happening and it concluded that a combination of societal, economic, and behavioral changes over the last ten to fifteen years was to blame.
1. Economic Stagnation and Austerity
Health outcomes cannot be separated from economic policy. The stalling and subsequent decline of Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) closely aligns with a decade of public spending cuts starting in the early 2010s.
2. Widening Social Inequalities
Where a person lives and how much they earn drastically impacts their health. There is now a shocking 20-year gap in healthy life expectancy between the wealthiest and poorest regions of the UK. For example, a man in wealthy Richmond upon Thames can expect nearly 70 years of good health, while a man in Blackpool can expect just under 51.
3. Ultra-Processed Diets and Obesity
On an individual level, nutritional habits have sharply deteriorated. Modern lifestyles rely heavily on cheap, ultra-processed foods (UPFs) which are high in sugar, salt, and unhealthy fats. This has fueled a surge in Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and musculoskeletal pain long before people reach retirement age.
4. Systemic Healthcare Strains
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in long-term delays in medical and surgical care. Conditions like cancer, heart disease, or severe gynaecological issues are caught much later, turning treatable illnesses into lifelong disabilities.
Other commentators have agreed that the responsible factors include:
Deepening wealth divide: In England’s most deprived areas, 32.8% of adults remain completely inactive (doing under 30 minutes of movement a week), compared to just 19.3% in affluent areas.
Stubborn childhood inactivity: A staggering 52.2% of children still fail to meet the Chief Medical Officer’s guideline of averaging 60 minutes of daily activity.
The Cost-of-Living barrier: Expensive club fees, the closing of older municipal swimming pools, and reduced leisure budgets mean lower-income households are structurally locked out of fitness spaces.
The passive lifestyle inertia: Remote work, automated services, and high screen time means the baseline population is still profoundly sedentary outside of intentional workout windows.
What to do about it
All of these seem to help explain the reasons for the decline in population health – but how is it to be put right? AI believes that prevention should be the focus – regulating junk food, taxing sugar, investing more in health services such as health screening, reducing smoking and alcohol use – and I am delighted to say, building strength and mobility.
I am convinced that increased sedentary time and reduced physical activity are the final common pathways which lead from all these factors. This fact is disguised by publicly available figures which seem to indicate that we are doing plenty. Nearly all the information we have about people’s physical activity is based on self-reporting rather than actual measurement. Careful measurement of activity has shown a huge disparity between what people say they do and what they actually do.While national questionnaire surveys usually boast that 60% or more of the public meets weekly exercise targets, accelerometer data reveals that fewer than 5% of adults actually accumulate 150 minutes of true, continuous moderate-to-vigorous physical activity.
The ultimate solution
Get moving! Take more exercise and make that a lot more than you think you need! I expect that you knew that I was going to say that!
